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solar cycle update solar max could be

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double peaked presented by science at

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nasa

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something unexpected is happening on the

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sun

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2013 is supposed to be the year of solar

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max the peak of the 11 year sunspot

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cycle

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yet 2013 has arrived and solar activity

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is relatively low

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sunspot numbers are well below their

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values in 2011 and strong solar flares

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have been infrequent for many months

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the quiet has led some observers to

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wonder if forecasters missed the mark

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solar physicist dean pesnell of the

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goddard space flight center has a

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different explanation

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this is solar maximum he suggests but it

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looks different from what we expected

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because it is double peaked

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conventional wisdom holds that solar

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activity swings back and forth like a

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simple pendulum

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at one end of the cycle there is a quiet

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time with few sun spots and flares at

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the other end solar max brings high

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sunspot numbers and solar storms it's a

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regular rhythm that repeats every 11

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years

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reality however is more complicated

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astronomers have been counting sunspots

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for centuries and they have seen that

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the solar cycle is not perfectly regular

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for one thing the back and forth swing

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in sunspot counts can take anywhere from

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10 to 13 years to complete

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also the amplitude of the cycle varies

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some solar maxima are very weak

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others very strong

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pesnell notes yet another complication

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the last two solar maxima around 1989

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and 2001 had not one but two peaks

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solar activity went up

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dipped then resumed performing a mini

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cycle that lasted about two years

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the same thing could be happening now

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sunspot counts jumped in 2011 dipped in

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2012 and pesnell expects them to rebound

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again in 2013.

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i am comfortable in saying that another

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peak will happen in 2013 and possibly

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last into 2014 he predicts

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another curiosity of the solar cycle is

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that the sun's hemispheres do not always

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peak at the same time in the current

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cycle the south has been lagging behind

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the north

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the second peak if it occurs will likely

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feature the southern hemisphere playing

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catch-up with a surge in activity south

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of the sun's equator

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pesnell is a leading member of the noaa

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nasa solar cycle prediction panel a blue

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ribbon group of solar physicists who

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assembled in 2006 and 2008 to forecast

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the next solar max

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at the time the sun was experiencing its

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deepest minimum in nearly 100 years

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sunspot numbers were pegged near zero

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and x-ray flare activity flatlined for

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months at a time

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recognizing that deep minima are often

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followed by weak maxima and pulling

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together many other threads of

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predictive evidence the panel issued

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this statement the solar cycle 24

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prediction panel has reached a consensus

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the panel has decided that the next

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solar cycle cycle 24 will be below

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average in intensity with a maximum

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sunspot number of 90.

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given the date of solar minimum and the

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predicted maximum intensity solar

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maximum is now expected to occur in may

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2013.

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note this is not a unanimous decision

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but a super majority of the panel did

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agree

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given the tepid state of solar activity

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in february 2013 a maximum in may now

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seems unlikely

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we may be seeing what happens when you

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predict a single amplitude and the sun

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responds with a double peak comments

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pesnell

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similarity between solar cycle 24

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underway now and solar cycle 14 which

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had a double peak during the first

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decade of the 20th century

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if the two cycles are in fact twins it

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would mean one peak in late 2013 and

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another in 2015.

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no one knows for sure what the sun will

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do next it seems likely though that the

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end of 2013 could be a lot livelier than

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the beginning

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for more news about the progress of the